The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century Epub


    The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century Epub Friedman, founder of STRATFOR the preeminent private intelligence and forecasting firm focuses on what he knows best, the future Positing that civilization is at the dawn of a new era, he offers a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty first century all based on his own thorough analysis and research For example, The US Jihadist war will be replaced by a new cold war with Russia China s role as a world power will diminish Mexico will become an important force on the geopolitical stage and new technologies and cultural trends will radically alter the way we live and fight wars Riveting reading from first to last, The NextYears is a fascinating exploration of what the future holds for all of us For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to Stratfor."/>
  • Paperback
  • 253 pages
  • The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
  • George Friedman
  • English
  • 25 January 2018
  • 0767923057

10 thoughts on “The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

  1. Michael Herrman Michael Herrman says:

    I was suspicious of Friedman s argument for being able to foresee the future because it essentially boiled down to highly competent people have very few options to choose from That is to say that thecompetent they are, the narrower their potential band of action and the easier to guess at what they ll do.To make his point, he invoked chess on the grandmaster level a world class player has few winning moves open to him, but many losing ones, and his logic is that the grandmaster will se I was suspicious of Friedman s argument for being able to foresee the future because it essentially boiled down to highly competent people have very few options to choose from That is to say that thecompetent they are, the narrower their potential band of action and the easier to guess at what they ll do.To make his point, he invoked chess on the grandmaster level a world class player has few winning moves open to him, but many losing ones, and his logic is that the grandmaster will select from among those very few winning options.My first problem was that his logic on that point a point which supports his entire analysis begs a few questions and makes a few assumptions, the first and most important being that policy makers are guaranteed to be grandmasters, or even sane They aren t even guaranteed to be competent and, in countries dominated by special interests like the US history providesthan a few examples of governments working against the general welfare So Friedman s first assertion, that governments won t take wildly idiotic actions, I rejected out of hand I d like to be able to say that they don t tend to do spectacularly stupid things, but they do them and those actions change the rest of the game all the way down the line.At this point, I was running cold.Then he did what he does do well, which is to explain the geopolitics of the post USSR world He lays his explanation along the following foundations and, as I got into them, he started to win me back The US enjoys its current position in the world because it has large, powerful navies in the Pacific and Atlantic as it surpassed and replaced the formal center of economic power, Atlantic Europe, after WWII The dissolution of the USSR set off quakes along a geopolitical fault line in Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Baltics, particularly Georgia, the Ukraine, the middle east and the Balkans We ve been watching the reverberations around that for two decades Post USSR Russia has shifted strategies and has become an energy exporter it dominates its neighbors to include European states like Germany and Poland with oil and natural gas because they need it and Russian hands are on the spigot China is cash poor, but its energy demands are rising It also lacks a coherent ideology to keep the poor, interior population loyal to the state party It has remained afloat and is losing wealth because the party makes the loans and dictates monetary policy This has served China well in many ways, but has caused large losses since who one knows isimportant than the profitability of an industry He asserts that this causes a disconnect between the interior and the coastal, industrial areas a historical problem in China and may lead to fragmentation in the next couple of decades due to divergent interests in the country coupled with a weakening central ideology Because of that, he sees a shifting appeal to nationalism, which goes hand in hand with xenophobia Population growth will stabilize during this century, then begin to fall This will cause an increase in demand for labor, and increased worker migration, probably invited and encouraged, even into the US Updated observation The impending automation of many job roles that are currently labor intensive will probably be a significant counterweight to this assessment, even beyond what we ve seen so far on assembly lines, for instance An ascendant Turkey will play a greater role in Eurasia, eventually becoming a force to be reckoned with As this happens and Turkey comes closer to reclaiming the historical economic and military power of the old Ottoman Empire, it will shift away from the US sphere of influence while most countries in the Middle East will set aside their antipathy for the Turks and will begin to align with them.From here, he explains the context of the Osettian war with Russia, as well as Russian security concerns the plain running through northern Europe to St Petersburg, the historical avenue of attack for European invaders and their interests in Eastern Europe From here, it starts to go downhill.He explains why he thinks Germany and France will leave NATO, why Russia is concerned about US intentions in Asia and Europe, and why he believes Japan and Turkey will form an alliance that Turkey will want to neutralize Poland and expand to the north while Japan will want to chase the US out of their sea zone Sound crazy When he talked history, I was right there Man, I liked it When he began making predictions, I wavered I could follow and nod along with his projections for the next ten years, but after 2020 or so I considered the material to be poorly narrated speculative fiction If one of his major players and he acknowledges this fact does something wildly tangential and alters the dynamic, everything else falls apart down the line.I recommend this book for the historical background and for its current appraisal of what s making the major players around the world tick Those two points, by themselves, make it worth a read Even if you start to skim after the year 2020 or just throw the book away when he starts talking about war between a US Polish alliance vs Turkey and Japan via a surprise attack on US space platforms with a Pearl Harbor style attack, launched from Japanese bases on the dark side of the moon it will still be worth it unless you re already well informed in geopolitics It s good It s not Chomsky but it s good, which testifies to his skill considering the subject matter 3 solid stars


  2. Heidi Heidi says:

    I chose to read this book because someone asked people s opinion on an email list I couldn t buy into it enough to finish it.First, we are asked to accept geopolitical analysis, then we are asked to accept that George Friedman s analysis using geopolitics is accurate, and that his angle is the only one that counts.Well I don t buy it Most of the time he picks and chooses what specific world events to highlight to prove his geopolitical forecast I kept thinking of other events he ignored I I chose to read this book because someone asked people s opinion on an email list I couldn t buy into it enough to finish it.First, we are asked to accept geopolitical analysis, then we are asked to accept that George Friedman s analysis using geopolitics is accurate, and that his angle is the only one that counts.Well I don t buy it Most of the time he picks and chooses what specific world events to highlight to prove his geopolitical forecast I kept thinking of other events he ignored I also kept thinking of a vastly different interpretation of those events What it comes down to is, it s all his opinion, and since he picks and chooses what history we should look at to prove his points, his forecasts are built on sticks and cards.Especially dubious are the premises that countries will act in their best, what, Machiavellian interests, even when one person is essentially making those decisions So George Bush Jr acted the way he did because it was the next step for our country to take Right.You have to buy Reaganomics, you have to buy that this crash of 2008 was just a blip, and we still have prosperity for a real crash 20 some years from now, and nowhere does he take into account peak oil having anything to do with future economic woesat least as far as I got.An example He says, these alliances and maneuvers are not difficult to predict As I have said, they follow well established patterns that have been ingrained in history for many centuries What I am doing is seeing how traditional patterns play themselves out in the context of the twenty first century this after countless arguments that could conclude just the opposite of what he posited as givens.He actually thinks Japan will rise again as a military power Right This would completely ignore the anti war effect that the carpet bombings of Tokyo and the atom bombs had on the country I think the country has discovered what prosperity can be had by choosing not to have to build a military industrial complex


  3. Dan Solomon Dan Solomon says:

    I made it through the first seven chapters in, like, four enthusiastic hours He talks some convincing shit about history and what we can extrapolate from history in order to better understand what the future might hold It s insightful and readable and very smart The next three chapters took about a week, and I found myself constantly checking my iPhone while I was reading it I couldn t figure out why, and then I realized that the guy was probably just making shit up The reason the first sev I made it through the first seven chapters in, like, four enthusiastic hours He talks some convincing shit about history and what we can extrapolate from history in order to better understand what the future might hold It s insightful and readable and very smart The next three chapters took about a week, and I found myself constantly checking my iPhone while I was reading it I couldn t figure out why, and then I realized that the guy was probably just making shit up The reason the first several chapters work is because it s realistic to think that you could predict what 2025 is going to look like it s not really that far away, and the key players are all on the board already But the further he gets from right now, the wackier he comes off in order for his 2050 to be right, he s got to get everything right in 2040, and that means 2030 has to be right, and 2020, too I don t have that much faith in this guy, and so when he talks about our forthcoming Space War With Turkey And Japan, I feel like I m reading weird geo political fan fiction If he d called it The Next 20 Years and written it as a fanzine or something, I d be recommending it to everybody I met Instead, I don t think I ll ever even make it to the end of the thing


  4. David David says:

    Hmmmthis is a difficult book to write about for a number of reasons Let s take a Proustian moment and beat it to death with words.The most difficult is the complexity of dealing with any topic beyond the window of 5 years This is the problem with futurism in general Predicting one year out is difficult but beyond 5 years you are descending into fantasya brief review of the futurist texts over the past 40 yrs proves this point Though these get a few things right most of what they have Hmmmthis is a difficult book to write about for a number of reasons Let s take a Proustian moment and beat it to death with words.The most difficult is the complexity of dealing with any topic beyond the window of 5 years This is the problem with futurism in general Predicting one year out is difficult but beyond 5 years you are descending into fantasya brief review of the futurist texts over the past 40 yrs proves this point Though these get a few things right most of what they have to say we now only laugh at.What makes this book interesting is that it uses the hook of geopolitics the study of the relationship among politics and geography, demography, and economics, especially with respect to the foreign policy of a nation This is a subject I find very interesting because it is re emerging as a legitimate area of study after years of being held in disreputeor, at least, being considered a tad sketchy by many academics, intellectuals, and populist pundits Geography is important and demography is very important.However, Mr Friedman starts losing me around 2040 and definitely loses me in his discussion of World War III around abouts 2050 he is essentially retelling WWII with a few geographic and technological shifts And I do have some trouble about discounting China I too suspect that China may be a paper dragon but to sideline it in the way he has is very suspicious I also believe his suggestion of how Mexican Americans will think of themselves and behave at the end of the 21st century especially since he leaves this issue unresolved isthan a little naive.What do I think of this book as a whole Complicated On the one hand, I do like, or at least appreciate, what he says, mostly, until the end of the 2030s but after that his ideas become almost laughable.His acceptance and dismissal of Global Warming is very disconcerting and damages his thesis deeply But his unwillingness to engage with environmental disasters that will have an enormous impact on geopolitics is also troubling Disasters that could occur over the next century are water shortages inevitable , earthquakes along the Western U.S coast very probable the unexploded volcano under Yellowstone national park which could erupt taking most of North and Meso America with it , the evolution of diseases and the coming pandemics are just a few of the things that could throw his neat, rationally neat at least, thesis into hazard.But, as an act of imaginative future historiography it is compelling and readable It is something we should all be thinking aboutif only as a side project After all, the future is where all of our children and grandchildren will have to live and we should all be concerned about the world they will find themselves in once we have turned to dust.So, in the end, I would recommend this bookbut with the caveats you will have met above.Not a boring book, but one that could have used better writing, acomprehensive and analytical imagination, and a richer palette of variables Still, all in all, a good attempt.P.S.The biggest problem with this book is that it sports a blurb by the hysterical, xenophobic Lou Dobbsone of the strangest pundits out there today and a thoroughly degraded human being


  5. Mike Mike says:

    More like a long New Yorker article than an actual book by which I mean it s at points breezy, totally accessible, and engaging the book by Friedman is something of a wonder As a lover of Sci Fi and Speculative Fiction I thought I d find out what someone who gets paid for a living to think about the future thought would happen in the next 100 years Keep in mind Friedman s entire focus is geo political but in order to make that work he does have some interesting insights into the future of More like a long New Yorker article than an actual book by which I mean it s at points breezy, totally accessible, and engaging the book by Friedman is something of a wonder As a lover of Sci Fi and Speculative Fiction I thought I d find out what someone who gets paid for a living to think about the future thought would happen in the next 100 years Keep in mind Friedman s entire focus is geo political but in order to make that work he does have some interesting insights into the future of culture and technology trends that will have huge impacts on who we are competing with over the next 100 years.Amazing things I learned while reading this book 1 The population explosion is rapidly coming to an end In fact, in the next 30 years we will actually have a population shortage see Japan s current problems now expand them to almost the entire planet.2 The role of women in society, in terms of independence, affluence, and relative power, is greater than at any time in human history We are living in unprecedented times in this regard and this trend is only going to increase The impact of this on traditional roles in society particularly marriage and family structure and ontraditional cultures i.e the Middle East will be profound.3 The US will rule outer space with an iron fist and we will use that to control the planet 4 Watch out for Mexico no really, they may be our only real competitor over the long run.5 China is not really a big deal in the long run In fact, it may start falling apart in the next 10 years.I won t go into great detail about any of those things but I think he makes compelling arguments for each In fact, when I started reading the book his intense geography is everything point of view seemed kind of myopic However, since finishing this book I ve already seen several of the trends he discussed playing out in the news i.e hypersonic jet tests by the US military, China s current scandals and economic woes, increasing tension with Russia, etc For anyone with a passing interest in the future I highly recommend this book While at times the book dragged and there is a part of me that thought Yeah right about his description of the mid century world war Friedman always seemed to correct the pacing and hook me right back in I kind of devoured this book in about five days which, given my general lack of reading time, is pretty fast for me.Over all, check it out if you enjoy musing about the future or if you want to sound really smart at the next family function


  6. Ryan Holiday Ryan Holiday says:

    Books aimed at predicting the future are always dangerous and often reek of charlatanism Books on politics and war are regularly partisan and emotional It s impressive that The Next 100 years, a book that attempts to predict the future of both international politics and war in the coming century falls prey to none of those traps Friedman is calm, dispassionate and articulate at each turn.His predictions are surprising in that they contradict almost everything the average person would trend ou Books aimed at predicting the future are always dangerous and often reek of charlatanism Books on politics and war are regularly partisan and emotional It s impressive that The Next 100 years, a book that attempts to predict the future of both international politics and war in the coming century falls prey to none of those traps Friedman is calm, dispassionate and articulate at each turn.His predictions are surprising in that they contradict almost everything the average person would trend outwardly from 2009 For instance, Russia and China are not the countries we ought to fear Why Because they re ultimately limited by their geography and strategic incentives These are the same inhibitions that have held them back in prior centuries Instead Friedman thinks that Turkey, Mexico and Japan are likely future enemies Whether or not he s ends up being proven correct, his writing is educational in that he refuses to succumb to the obvious He looks at the underlying conditions the why and not the individuals or the common fears.All that being said, Friedman and the book have two big weaknesses One, Friedman uses the past to extrapolate the future As Nassim Nicholas Taleb would retort, that s what the Thanksgiving turkey did to little success Relying on what happened in the last twenty years as proof of what will happen in the next is dangerous and illogical Even if you end up being right, it s because you guessed, not because you looked at the evidence As a result, the 21st Century in this book will apparently be almost identical to the 20th albeit with shinier toys andlasers Two, this book has ZERO footnotes or references It s unthinkable that 300 pages of political analysis and complex predictions would be without a single sourced sentence There s not even an index to use for research.Accordingly, The Next 100 Years should be viewed as intelligent and well written entertainment, not an academic work Whether that was his intention, to me, is irrelevant


  7. Ingrid Ingrid says:

    A very interesting book, detailed Of course the further it moves away from our times thespeculative it gets Still, since the publication in 2009 time has proven the author right on several issues It has taken me a long time to read, I didn t find it easy, but well worth while.


  8. Diane Diane says:

    This book is based on an intriguing idea, that it is possible to predict the future based on geopolitical interests The author explains changes in 20 year cycles in the past, and then proceeds to predict the next century The book s greatest virtue is that it looks critically at a number of commonly held beliefs about the future particularly in regard to China s future power The author does a good job of explaining why events generally do not always continue along a smooth path, and hence wh This book is based on an intriguing idea, that it is possible to predict the future based on geopolitical interests The author explains changes in 20 year cycles in the past, and then proceeds to predict the next century The book s greatest virtue is that it looks critically at a number of commonly held beliefs about the future particularly in regard to China s future power The author does a good job of explaining why events generally do not always continue along a smooth path, and hence why extrapolation does not always work I thought his anaylsis of the next 20 years sounded fairly realistic, but beyond that, it began to resemble science fiction However, to his credit, the author acknowledges the problems of predicting that far out into the future, and says that his predictions will become less accurate as they go farther out The main problems with his argument, in my view, are as follows 1 The author dismisses the present economic crisis as something that will quickly pass, as other similar crises have in the past However, he does not discuss the role of debt in creating the current crisis, nor does he discuss how a debt fueled crisis might differ from other types of economic downturns This is particularly striking in that he claims that Americans are in a period of high mobility, and will remain so for the next 20 years, but he doesn t talk about how being underwater on your mortgage may make it hard to maintain that mobility.2 The author dismisses the role of religion by saying that modern economic arrangements will maketraditional ways of life, and hencetraditional values, obsolete While I think he makes some good points about how technological and economic change will disrupt traditional values, I think he is much too self assured about how well the modern world will deal with this He seems to dismiss population contraction as not necessarily worth worrying about, which may be true, butlikely is not Furthr, while he argues that traditionalists are fighting a rear guard action that they can t win, he doesn t discuss how religious traditionalists who generally have larger than average families could significantly increase their percentage of an overall declining population This is a significant issue for the future, particularly in democratic countries.3 The author doesn t say anything at all about India s role in the next century I think this is a tremendous oversight, as India is likely to play a major role and should not be overlooked so easily I think it has a much better chance of being a signficiant player in the 21st century than does China, but the author hardly even mentions it.Overall, I would say this is a worthwhile book with some important weaknesses


  9. Bruno Gremez Bruno Gremez says:

    In this 2009 version, George Friedman tried to predict possible geopolitical events and major trends of the 21st century A little bit in the spirit of The rise and the fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy, he analyses the strengths and weaknesses of a large number of important countries in order to forecast how the world could look like in the next 2 or 3 decades and who would dominate it George Friedman, contrary to many, speculates that the US will retain their dominance To some exten In this 2009 version, George Friedman tried to predict possible geopolitical events and major trends of the 21st century A little bit in the spirit of The rise and the fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy, he analyses the strengths and weaknesses of a large number of important countries in order to forecast how the world could look like in the next 2 or 3 decades and who would dominate it George Friedman, contrary to many, speculates that the US will retain their dominance To some extent, his argumentation is based on some objective and strong facts, the main ones being the very favourable geopolitical location of the US, with direct access to major oceans and no border shared with direct enemies, and the availability of a wide range of resources to support such dominance.Another strength of the US is its formidable and tested ability to easily assimilate migrants in a century that will inevitably be characterised by major immigration, especially from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere.A major shortcoming of this analysis to my view is that too little emphasis is placed on the impact of climate change This is surprising since it is already happening and will have immediate effects on geopolitics How will climate change impact major countries, including the US How will the US cope with scare water resources What will the US do when its agriculture is affected by climate change and water scarcity How, when and where will that cause new conflicts It is really unfortunate that George Friedman failed to reflect on these imminent and fundamental changes and their effects.Instead, the book speculates on major technological advances that may take place in the course of the 21st century in order to figure out how the world could look like towards the end of the century This part of the analysis appeared to me to be futile, for two main reasons.First, it seems a bit presumptuous to anticipate the kind of technological progress that human kind will bring in 80 years from now, while nobody had imagined the upcoming importance of internet 25 years ago for instance How could anyone, with any sort of reasonable certainty and scientific accuracy, foresee how the world will have changed technologically 25 years from now, let alone towards the end of the 21st century Second andimportantly, many of these technological advances will according to me be determined to a very large extent, directly or indirectly, by our global efforts to cope with and address the causes and effects of climate change But, as explained, the importance of the issue of climate change has unfortunately not been recognised by the author.Review by Bruno Gremez


  10. Ellis Ellis says:

    This book bases projections on so many layers of assumptions that all depend on each other being true that it s discussion of power and national relationships are probably as likely to come to pass as me lassoing the Easter Bunny and eating him her for Easter dinner Aside from the silliness of the arguments in this book, any new occurrence can completely destroy all of Friedman s projections For example, how will the recent discovery of vast mineral resources in Afghanistan affect its future s This book bases projections on so many layers of assumptions that all depend on each other being true that it s discussion of power and national relationships are probably as likely to come to pass as me lassoing the Easter Bunny and eating him her for Easter dinner Aside from the silliness of the arguments in this book, any new occurrence can completely destroy all of Friedman s projections For example, how will the recent discovery of vast mineral resources in Afghanistan affect its future strength and the author s estimated future strength of Turkey The author can t doesn t say because the resources were found after this book was published and the author s projections couldn t didn t account for any new information that may come to light Again, the future is fun except for in the last half of this book maddening to think about, but it s just too difficult to see very far into the future Another thing I m not a real fan of is this author s willingness to throw America into war these ideas are also in display in other writing by this author Americas Secret War simply to maintain American wealth Yes, it is nice to have the standard of living that we do, but, personally, I d rather be in second place rather than drop bombs on people just so I can have a 50 inch rather than a 42 inch television If I could be in second place and enjoy a peaceful world then I d step off the gold medal podium with joy


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The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century➻ [Reading] ➽ The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century By George Friedman ➰ – Natus-physiotherapy.co.uk A fascinating, eye opening and often shocking look at what lies ahead for the US and the world from one of our most incisive futurists In his thought provoking new book, George Friedman, founder of ST A fascinating, eye opening and often shocking 100 Years: PDF Æ look at what The Next PDF or lies ahead for the US and the world from one of Next 100 Years: eBook ☆ our most incisive futurists In his thought provoking new book, George Friedman, founder of STRATFOR the preeminent private intelligence and forecasting firm focuses on what he knows best, the future Positing that civilization is at the dawn of a new era, he offers a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty first century all based on his own thorough analysis and research For example, The US Jihadist war will be replaced by a new cold war with Russia China s role as a world power will diminish Mexico will become an important force on the geopolitical stage and new technologies and cultural trends will radically alter the way we live and fight wars Riveting reading from first to last, The NextYears is a fascinating exploration of what the future holds for all of us For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to Stratfor.


About the Author: George Friedman

George Friedman is an internationally recognized geopolitical 100 Years: PDF Æ forecaster and strategist The Next PDF or on international affairs and the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures Next 100 Years: eBook ☆ A New York Times bestselling author, Dr Friedman s most recent book, THE STORM BEFORE THE CALM America s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the s, and the Triumph Beyond, published February , describes how the United States periodically reaches a point of crisis in which it appears to be at war with itself, yet after an extended period it reinvents itself, in a form both faithful to its founding and radically different from what it had been The decade is such a period which will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture His most popular book, The Next Years, is kept alive by the prescience of its predictions Other best selling books include Flashpoints The Emerging Crisis in Europe, The Next Decade, America s Secret War, The Future of War and The Intelligence Edge His books have been translated intothan languages Dr Friedman has briefed numerous military and government organizations in the United States and overseas and appears regularly as an expert on international affairs, foreign policy and intelligence in major media For almost years before resigning in May , Dr Friedman was CEO and then chairman of Stratfor, a company he founded in Friedman received his bachelor s degree from the City College of the City University of New York and holds a doctorate in government from Cornell University.